Former Mossad Chief: Iran Weakening, May Do Deal

Former Mossad Director Efraim Halevy told NewsMax in an exclusive interview in Jerusalem that he is seeing signs the leadership in Iran may be weakening in its opposition to the Western offer of nuclear negotiations.

Despite repeated claims by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran will "never give up" its uranium enrichment program, Halevy said that Iran's supreme leader and his entourage have been measuring the economic and strategic damage that would result from serious international sanctions on Iran.

"They are beginning to realize that the array of sanctions and other measures that will be imposed on them if they refuse poses a formidable threat to them," Halevy said.

"I am seeing some signs that they are beginning to take it seriously." European diplomatic chief Javier Solana delivered the international "ultimatum" to Iran on June 6. Most press accounts have focused on the extensive benefits the great powers offered Iran if it agreed to verifiably suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing programs, and open its facilities to transparent international inspections. But President Bush and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have also made clear that Iran would pay a steep price if it rejected the two conditions to talk.

"The Iranian regime must persuasively demonstrate that it has permanently abandoned its quest for nuclear weapons," Rice said on May 31, when she announced the offer of negotiations.

If the regime refused the offer, "it will incur only great costs," Rice said. "We and our European partners agree that path will lead to international isolation and progressively stronger political and economic sanctions."

Halevy believed the full extent of those costs has begun to weigh on Iran's leaders, and will motivate them to take the deal. While many have speculated that Israel would have to take unilateral military action to disable Iran's nuclear weapons program, Halevy felt that was unlikely. "I believe the international community will succeed in getting it under control, through some mixture of sanctions and diplomacy," he said.



Halevy retired after five years as Mossad director in October 2002, and subsequently was named by prime minister Ariel Sharon to head the National Security Council, an advisory body to the government. He now directs the Hebrew University Center for Strategic and Policy Center in Jerusalem.

He spoke to NewsMax in Jerusalem on Wednesday, June 21.


NewsMax: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said recently, "Under no circumstances and at no time can Israel allow anyone with malicious designs against us to have control of weapons of destruction that threaten our existence," and that Iran was just a "few months" from weapons capability.

At what point does Iran become Israel's problem?

Halevy: Iran already is Israel's problem. Iran has been battling Israel ever since Khomeini came to power in 1979. They've been battling Israel on five fronts: By their denial of Israel's right to exist; by the creation of an army, Hezbollah, positioned on Israel's northern border [with Lebanon], and by giving Hezbollah military capabilities – especially missiles – that threaten large areas of Israel; by carrying out terrorist subversive activities against Israel in far flung places, such as the [1992] attack on Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina or the [1994] attack on the AMIA Jewish Center in Argentina ;by penetrating the Palestinian territories and setting up terrorist capabilities there; and by trying to assemble a nuclear weapons capability.


Iran's avowed aim is to destroy Israel. So it's not when will Iran become a threat; Iran has always been a threat to Israel.

NewsMax: Under what circumstances would Israel contemplate taking unilateral military action against Iran? When will Iran become such an imminent threat as to make that necessary?

Halevy: I don't think things will reach that stage, where unilateral military action will become necessary. I believe the international community will succeed in getting it under control, through some mixture of sanctions and diplomacy. That's how it always is . . . a mixture of brain and brawn.

NewsMax: Recently, President Bush changed course and offered negotiations to Iran on condition that Iran verifiably suspend all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, and open its nuclear facilities to comprehensive inspections. Do you think this was wise?

Halevy: It's too early to tell. I'm observing it, watching developments.

NewsMax: Iranian President Ahmadinejad has said repeatedly Iran will never give up uranium enrichment. Do you believe he can reverse course and accept the conditions the international community has laid down?

Halevy: It's not just in Ahmadinejad's hands. It's in the hands of the leadership. He's part of that, but he doesn't control it. It depends on how the leadership assesses the threats pointed at them if they don't accept the offer of negotiations.

They are beginning to realize that the array of sanctions and other measures that will be imposed on them if they refuse poses a formidable threat to them. I am seeing some signs that they are beginning to take it seriously.

NewsMax: How good is Israel's intelligence on Iran?

Halevy: . . . no intelligence officer is ever comfortable with what he knows. You always want to know more.