Ken Mehlman: GOP Gains Momentum

The following is a memorandum from Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman to Republican leadership and interested parties regarding momentum heading toward Election Day:

New polls say our party is heading into Election Day with strong momentum. Specifically, three national polls this weekend show Republicans making major gains.

The Generic Ballot is Closing - The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (Nov. 1-4) shows Republicans cutting the Democrat lead on the generic ballot from down 11 last month (39- 50) to down just four points today (43-47). The ABC News/Washington Post poll (Nov. 1-4) shows Republicans cutting the Democrat edge from -14 two weeks ago to only a six point margin today. In addition, Gallup (Nov. 2-5) has the Democrat margin dropping by half over the past two weeks, to a seven-point race.

By comparison, while Republicans held an average 1-point lead in these polls in 1994 and 2002, the current average Democrat lead-six points-is the same as it was in 1998, when there was minimal change in the balance of Congress.

Republican Enthusiasm is Growing - Democrat interest in the election has remained relatively static, while Republican interest (+14) and enthusiasm (+10) have increased significantly, according to Pew, which concludes "Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats...

Republicans are Picking Up More Swing Votes - The ABC/ Washington Post poll showed a net 10-point gain for Republicans among independents from last month. Pew showed a similar gain among independents of 10 points since last month and a huge 17- point net gain among moderates.

The ABC/Washington Post poll shows the Republican edge in the generic ballot has increased 10 points among conservatives, from 68-29 (a month ago) to 73-24.

The final pre-election Pew poll shows a similar trend with Republicans now planning to support the GOP growing a net-3 points. It also shows a net-6 point increase among conservatives and net-18 points among white evangelical Christians.

72-Hour Program is Working - The GOP's 72-hour program has reached 27 million volunteer contacts through Saturday, hitting 3 million voters this Saturday alone. By and large, this effort will have its impact on Election Day and will not show up in most public opinion polls. However, some trends are starting to be seen in the data:

Republicans are casting a wider net: According to the ABC/Washington Post poll, among those who have been contacted by campaigns, 70 percent were contacted by Republicans while only 61 percent were contacted by Democrats.

And using better targeting: The Pew study says that we are not only contacting more voters, but contacting the right voters: 40 percent of our party was contacted by Republicans, while Democrats only connected with 34 percent of their own party.

The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Republicans gaining on handling of Iraq (+8) and Personal Values (+12).

The Kerry Factor - John Kerry's "stuck in Iraq" remark has attracted the attention of 84 percent of voters, and 19 percent - - including 18 percent of independents -- say it has raised serious doubts about voting for their local Democratic candidates.

Following recent gains in the Dow and low unemployment numbers, those who see the economy as excellent or good increased from 36 percent to 44 percent in the Pew poll.

On average, the President's job approval increased a net 4 points.

Voters' view of the direction of country has improved dramatically - a net 14-point gain among those that see things going in the right direction in the ABC poll and a 12-point gain in Gallup.